Nate Silver

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Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who writes about baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology).

He is the editor and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained notoriety for establishing PECOTA, a tool for forecasting the success and career growth of Major League Baseball players, who went from 2003 to 2009, a list of the Most Influential People by Time.

The forecasting tool correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the 2012 United States presidential election, according to The New York Times.

FiveThirtyEight also received the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences' "Best Political Blog" award in 2012 and 2013. Silver sold FiveThirtyEight to ESPN in July 2013, and Silver became its Editor in Chief in July 2013.

On March 17, 2014, the ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight was released.

The site was focused on a variety of topics under the rubric of "data journalism." The Signal and the Noise, Silver's book, was released in September 2012.

It then made it to the top seller list for nonfiction on The New York Times and was named as the No. 1 by Amazon.com. This is the best nonfiction book of 2012.

The Signal and the Noise received the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science in 2013.

The book has been translated into eleven languages: Chinese (separate editions in traditional and simplified scripts), Czech, Finnish, German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, and Spanish. Silver earned six honorary doctoral degrees from Ripon College (2013), The University of Leuven (2013), Georgetown University (2017), and Kenyon College (2018), after receiving a bachelor's degree from The University of Chicago in 2000.

Early life

Sally (née Thrun), a community activist, and Brian David Silver, a former chair of Michigan State University's political science department, were born in East Lansing, Michigan. Silver's father's family, both of English and German descent, includes many influential men and women, including Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc. Silver's father's household includes two uncles, Leon Silver and Caswell Silver, both distinguished geologists. Silver has referred to himself as "half-Jewish."

Silver demonstrated a mathematical aptitude from a young age. "Silver caught the baseball bug when he was 6," journalist William Hageman said. It was 1984, the year the Detroit Tigers captured the World Series for the first time. The Tigers followed him on tour and baseball was his sport. If there's anything that goes hand in glove with baseball, it's numbers, another of Silver's childhood passions ("It's always more exciting to apply it to batting averages than algebra class")"

In the 49th annual John S. Knight Scholarship Contest for senior high school debaters, Silver took first place in the state of Michigan.

Silver first demonstrated his journalism abilities as a writer and opinion page editor for The Portrait, East Lansing High School's student newspaper, from 1993 to 1996.

Silver graduated from the University of Chicago with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics. He has also written for the Chicago Weekly News and the Chicago Maroon. He spent his third year at the London School of Economics.

Personal life

"I'd say I'm somewhere in between being a libertarian and a liberal," Charlie Rose said in a 2012 interview. So if I were to vote, it would be like a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose."

Caswell Silver and Leon Silver are two of the best geologists on the planet. He is a great-grandson of Harmon Lewis, the President of Alcoa Steamship Company, as well as a great-grandson of embryologist Warren Harmon Lewis and his wife, biologist Margaret Reed Lewis.

Silver is outrightly gay. "I've always felt like an outsider." I've always had friends, but I've always come from an outsider's point of view. I think it's important. If you grow up gay or in a gnostic household, when the majority of people are religious, then you are saying there are things that the majority of society accepts that I don't accept," he said in an interview in 2012. "If you asked what made you feel more of a misfit, being gay, or being a geek, he replied, 'Probably the numbers because I had that since I was six years old.' When asked whether he had noticed people noticing him as a "gay icon," he replied, "I've started to notice it a little bit, but so far it seems that I'm more concerned about geek love than gay love."

In an article about the Supreme Court's decision to recognize same-sex marriages on the date of its announcement, Silver addressed his sexuality in the context of growing up in East Lansing. He analyzed the change in public opinion, pointing out that the transition of only a few decades has been palpable to the new generations.

Silver has long been interested in fantasy baseball, particularly Scoresheet Baseball. He spent time in college as a scoresheet baseball consultant for BaseballHQ. Silver's blog, The Burrito Bracket, in which he ran a one-and-done competition among the taquerias in Chicago's Wicker Park neighborhood, stalled, was abandoned when he started writing politics.

Silver plays poker semi-professionally.

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Career

Silver spent three and a half years with KPMG in Chicago as a transfer pricing specialist. "What is your biggest regret in life?" says the examiner in 2009. "I spent four years of my life in a job I didn't like" Silver said. Silver continued to pursue his lifelong love for baseball and statistics, as well as his involvement with PECOTA for projecting player performance and careers while working with KPMG. He left his KPMG job in April 2004 and continued to make his living mainly by playing online poker. According to Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff, over a three-year span Silver earned $400,000 from online poker.

Silver became a writer for Baseball Prospectus (BP), after having sold PECOTA to BP in exchange for a joint interest. After resigning from KPMG in 2004, he was named Executive Vice President and then renamed Managing Partner of BP. Silver then developed PECOTA and wrote a weekly column under the heading "Lies, Damned Lies." He used sabermetric techniques to analyze individual players' results, the economics of baseball, statistics on player valuation, and creating a baseball evaluation system.

Silver co-authored the Baseball Prospectus annual book of Major League Baseball forecasts from 2003 to 2009, as well as other titles such as Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning, Baseball Between the Numbers.

He authored articles about baseball for ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Slate, the New York Sun, and The New York Times.

Silver has written more than 200 articles on Baseball Prospectus.

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical program that forecasts the future of hitters and pitchers. It is primarily intended for two people: fans of fantasy baseball, and baseball executives who are interested in predicting the success and value of major league players. PECOTA compares a given current player to a group of "comparable" players whose previous performances can reveal how the given current player is expected to do in the future, unlike most other baseball forecast systems. PECOTA also estimates a variety of potential results rather than a single predicted number on a particular measure such as earned run average or batting average, unlike most other similar approaches.

PECOTA estimates were first published in Baseball Prospectus' 2003 annual book, as well as online by BaseballProjectus.com. For each Major League Baseball season from 2003 to 2009, Silver produced the PECOTA forecasts for each Major League Baseball season from 2003 to 2009.

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Selected recognition and awards

• April 30, 2009: Silver was named one of "The World's 100 Most Influential People" by TIME magazine.
• May 12, 2013: Silver received an honorary Doctor of Science degree (Scientiæ Doctor honoris causa – D.Sc. h.c.) and gave the commencement address at Ripon College.
• May 24, 2013: Silver received an honorary Doctor of Literature degree (Doctor of Literature honoris causa) and presented a commencement address at The New School.
• October 2013: Silver's The Signal and the Noise won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, which recognizes "outstanding contributions by scientists to the literature of science".
• December 2013: The University of Leuven (KU Leuven) (Belgium) and the Leuven Statistics Research Centre awarded Silver an honorary doctoral degree "for his prominent role in the development, application, and dissemination of proper prediction methods in sports and in political sciences".
• May 25, 2014: Silver received a Doctorate of Humane Letters, honoris causa, from Amherst College.
• May 2017: Georgetown University awarded Silver a degree of Doctor of Humane Letters honoris causa.
• May 2018: Kenyon College awarded Silver a degree, Doctor of Humane Letters.